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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still